CONSUMER INSIGHTS & MARKET TRENDS | NORTH AMERICA

GLP-1 medications are changing grocery baskets, restaurant orders and portion expectations across the United States. For food companies, the disruption may be less about declining appetite and more about learning how to create greater value from less food.

Key Takeaways

• GLP-1 is becoming a meaningful food-market variable, not simply a pharmaceutical trend.
• Food volume may decline without an equivalent decline in value, creating openings for premiumization and nutrient density.
• Restaurants face difficult economics if consumers demand smaller portions at proportionally lower prices.
• Protein alone won’t define the opportunity. Fibre, micronutrients, portion design and sensory quality all deserve attention.
• The best GLP-1 products may never carry a GLP-1 claim. Broader positioning could reach a significantly larger market.

For decades, growth in the North American food industry has often meant selling more: larger packages, bigger restaurant portions, more eating occasions. GLP-1 medications are beginning to challenge that equation.

PwC reported in June 2026 that 21% of U.S. households included a current GLP-1 user, based on Numerator data, up from 9% in January 2025. Circana projects that GLP-1 households could account for 35% of U.S. food and beverage units purchased by 2030. The implications extend well beyond weight management.

The Grocery Basket Is Changing

Research linking GLP-1 adoption with household transaction data found grocery spending declined approximately 5.3% within six months of adoption. But consumers are not simply buying less of everything.

PwC found 61% of current users surveyed reported buying fewer sweet treats and 56% fewer salty snacks. Meanwhile, 44% reported buying more fresh produce, 35% more packaged protein and 34% more fresh protein.

That split suggests something important: GLP-1 may be reducing calorie demand faster than it’s reducing consumers’ willingness to pay for foods they consider valuable, creating an opening for protein-rich foods, nutrient-dense meals, fresh produce and products that deliver strong sensory satisfaction in smaller portions.

From Volume to Value

Indulgence offers an interesting test case. Reuters recently reported U.S. ice cream volumes declining 1.5% year over year, yet super-premium ice cream was the only segment recording volume growth. Manufacturers are also experimenting with smaller portions, higher protein and lower-calorie formulations.

Consumers may want less indulgence without abandoning indulgence altogether. For manufacturers, the commercial question could shift from “How do we get consumers to eat more?” to “How much value can we deliver in what they still want to eat?” That could reshape portion sizes, packaging, formulation and pricing across categories.

Restaurants Face a Different Problem

Foodservice may face an even harder equation. PwC found quick-service restaurant spending among GLP-1 households declined 8.7% after six to eight months, and 35% of current users wanted smaller portions at proportionally lower prices.

But serving 30% less food does not reduce labour, rent and operating costs by 30%. GLP-1 could therefore become a margin challenge as much as an appetite challenge, and restaurants may need genuinely new portion architectures rather than simply shrinking existing meals.

Protein Is Only Part of the Opportunity

Protein has become the industry’s preferred GLP-1 response, with companies including Nestlé developing products aimed squarely at the market. There is scientific justification: recent research has highlighted the importance of adequate protein intake in preserving lean mass during GLP-1-supported weight loss.

But adding protein doesn’t automatically create a compelling product. Reduced food intake makes nutrition per bite increasingly important, and fibre, vitamins, minerals, hydration, gastrointestinal tolerance and overall dietary quality all matter alongside it. That creates potential opportunities across frozen meals, yogurt, soups, beverages and snacks designed to deliver meaningful nutrition from smaller portions.

What the Industry May Be Missing

There are reasons for caution. Protein demand, reduced sugar consumption, health consciousness and premiumization all existed before widespread GLP-1 adoption. Consumers may also discontinue medication, and GLP-1 users are not a homogeneous group.

Companies should therefore avoid building products dependent entirely on GLP-1. The stronger strategy may be creating foods that work equally well for GLP-1 consumers and the much broader market seeking portion control, convenience and better nutrition.

Global Food Intelligence Perspective

GLP-1 is unlikely to kill the food industry. But it could challenge a business model historically dependent on increasing consumption. The opportunity may not be persuading consumers to eat more. It may be creating more nutritional, sensory and economic value from less food.

For decades, food companies pursued more occasions, more volume and larger portions. GLP-1 introduces a different strategic question: what does growth look like when the consumer no longer wants more?

---

Sources

1. PwC. The End of More: How GLP-1 Users Shop, Eat, and Seek Support. June 22, 2026.
2. Circana. GLP-1 Medication Users to Represent 35% of U.S. Food and Beverage Sales by 2030. November 18, 2025.
3. Cornell Chronicle / Journal of Marketing Research. Household food purchases following GLP-1 adoption. December 2025.
4. Arslan, S. Medical nutrition in the glucagon-like peptide-1 era. Clinical Nutrition ESPEN, 2026.
5. Laverde, L.P. et al. Effect of GLP-1 receptor agonists at doses for obesity management on muscle health. International Journal of Obesity, 2026.
6. Reuters. Ice cream makers bet consumers still want treats, just healthier ones. August 13, 2026.
7. Reuters. Nestlé looks to develop new products to serve users of weight-loss drugs. August 17, 2026.